Complex systems science: expert consultation report

Executive SummaryA new programme of research in Complex Systems Science must be initiated by FETThe science of complex systems (CS) is essential to establish rigorous scientific principles on which to develop the future ICT systems that are critical to the well-being, safety and prosperity of Europe and its citizens. As the “ICT incubator and pathfinder for new ideas and themes for long-term research in the area of information and communication technologies” FET must initiate a significant new programme of research in complex systems science to underpin research and development in ICT. Complex Systems Science is a “blue sky” research laboratory for R&D in ICT and their applications. In July 2009, ASSYST was given a set of probing questions concerning FET funding for ICT-related complex systems research. This document is based on the CS community’s response.Complex systems research has made considerable progress and is delivering new scienceSince FET began supporting CS research, considerable progress has been made. Building on previous understanding of concepts such as emergence from interactions, far-from-equilibrium systems, border of chaos and self-organised criticality, recent CS research is now delivering rigorous theory through methods of statistical physics, network theory, and computer simulation. CS research increasingly demands high-throughput data streams and new ICT-based methods of observing and reconstructing, i.e. modelling, the dynamics from those data in areas as diverse as embryogenesis, neuroscience, transport, epidemics, linguistics, meteorology, and robotics. CS research is also beginning to address the problem of engineering robust systems of systems of systems that can adapt to changing environments, including the perplexing problem that ICT systems are too often fragile and non-adaptive.Recommendation: A Programme of Research in Complex Systems Science to Support ICTFundamental theory in Complex Systems Science is needed, but this can only be achieved through real-world applications involving large, heterogeneous, and messy data sets, including people and organisations. A long-term vision is needed. Realistic targets can be set. Fundamental research can be ensured by requiring that teams include mathematicians, computer scientists, physicists and computational social scientists.One research priority is to develop a formalism for multilevel systems of systems of systems, applicable to all areas including biology, economics, security, transportation, robotics, health, agriculture, ecology, and climate change. Another related research priority is a scientific perspective on the integration of the new science with policy and its implementation, including ethical problems related to privacy and equality.A further priority is the need for education in complex systems science. Conventional education continues to be domain-dominated, producing scientists who are for the most part still lacking fundamental knowledge in core areas of mathematics, computation, statistical physics, and social systems. Therefore:1. We recommend that FET fund a new programme of work in complex systems science as essential research for progress in the development of new kinds of ICT systems.2. We have identified the dynamics of multilevel systems as the area in complex systems science requiring a major paradigm shift, beyond which significant scientific progress cannot be made.3. We propose a call requiring: fundamental research in complex systems science; new mathematical and computational formalisms to be developed; involving a large ‘guinea pig’ organisation; research into policy and its meta-level information dynamics; and that all research staff have interdisciplinary knowledge through an education programme.Tangible outcomes, potential users of the new science, its impact and measures of successUsers include (i) the private and public sectors using ICT to manage complex systems and (ii) researchers in ICT, CSS, and all complex domains. The tangible output of a call will be new knowledge on the nature of complex systems in general, new knowledge of the particular complex system(s) studied, and new knowledge of the fundamental role played by ICT in the research and implementation to create real systems addressing real-world problems. The impact of the call will be seen through new high added-value opportunities in the public and private sectors, new high added-value ICT technologies, and new high added-value science to support innovation in ICT research and development. The measure of success will be through the delivery of these high added-value outcomes, and new science to better understand failures

Towards the Coevolution of Incentives in BitTorrent

BitTorrent is a peer-to-peer file sharing system that is open to variant behavior at the peer level through modification of the client software. A number of different variants have been released and proposed. Some are successful and become widely used whereas others remain in a small minority or are not used at all. In previous work we explored the performance of a large set of client variants over a number of dimensions by applying Axelrod’s round-robin pairwise tournament approach. However, this approach does not capture the dynamics of client change over time within pairwise tournaments. In this work we extend the tournament approach to include a limited evolutionary step, within the pairwise tournaments, in which peers copy their opponents strategy (client variant) if it outperforms their own and also spontaneously change to the opponents strategy with a low mutation probability. We apply a number of different evolutionary algorithms and compare them with the previous non-evolutionary tournament results. We find that in most cases cooperative (sharing) strategies outperformed free riding strategies. These results are comparable to those previously obtained using the round-robin approach without evolution. We selected this limited form of evolution as a step towards understanding the full coevolutionary dynamics that would result from evolution between a large space of client variants in a shared population rather than just pairs of variants. We conclude with a discussion on how such future work might proceed. © 2015, Budapest Tech Polytechnical Institution. All rights reserved

Friends for Free: Self-Organizing Artificial Social Networks for Trust and Cooperation

By harvesting friendship networks from e-mail contacts or instant message "buddy lists" Peer-to-Peer (P2P) applications can improve performance in low trust environments such as the Internet. However, natural social networks are not always suitable, reliable or available. We propose an algorithm (SLACER) that allows peer nodes to create and manage their own friendship networks. We evaluate performance using a canonical test application, requiring cooperation between peers for socially optimal outcomes. The Artificial Social Networks (ASN) produced are connected, cooperative and robust - possessing many of the disable properties of human friendship networks such as trust between friends (directly linked peers) and short paths linking everyone via a chain of friends. In addition to new application possibilities, SLACER could supply ASN to P2P applications that currently depend on human social networks thus transforming them into fully autonomous, self-managing systems

Hotspots: Modelling capacity for vector-borne disease risk analysis in New Zealand: A case study of Ochlerotatus camptorhynchus incursions in New Zealand

This Hotspots case study of Oc. camptorhynchus in New Zealand forms part of the wider aims and objectives of the Hotspots project. The overall aims of the case study were: 1. To evaluate the performance of the Hotspots model as a risk analysis tool for Oc. camptorhynchus; 2. To use and learn from the experience of the various incursions of Oc. camptorhynchus in order to critically assess and improve the model; 3. To gain experience in using the model for risk analysis for Oc. camptorhynchus in particular, and in so doing, also develop experience applicable to risk analysis for other vectors of concern (Table 1); and, 4. To develop an experience and knowledge base as well as guidelines for future use of the model in its various applications related to biosecurity, surveillance and risk assessment and management

Hotspots: Exotic mosquito risk profiles for New Zealand

This document reports the main findings of the first systematic, spatial analyses of risks to New Zealand associated with exotic mosquitoes of current public health concern

Indexing Archival Films: Alaska Archival Motion Picture Program

Since the turn of the twentieth century, the state of Alaska has attracted professional and amateur filmmakers eager to document the northern wilderness and its inhabitants. Existing films on Alaska include thousands of feet of historically precious, unedited footage as well as studio productions; they are in demand by research specialists, educators, and filmmakers, as well as nonprofessional Alaskan citizens. Responding to that demand, administrators of the Rasmuson Library at the University of Alaska in Fairbanks launched the Alaska Archival Motion Picture Program to preserve film footage on Alaska and the circumpolar regions and to make it available to a variety of user groups

Student Success: A Literature Review of Faculty to Student Mentoring

This review summarizes the literature on university faculty to student mentoring programs. There has been a proliferation of mentoring programs because of the perceived benefit to student persistence and retention. While mentoring programs have become common, the research on these programs has not kept pace. Shortcomings identified thirty years ago such as lack of theoretical guidance, lack of operational definition of mentoring, and poor design continue to plague mentoring research. Recommendations to address these shortcomings and improve internal and external validity are examined. As universities continue to have increasingly constrained resources, and pressure to demonstrate strategies to help students be successful, evidence-based research will be increasingly desired. If shortcomings in mentoring research can be addressed, mentoring programs hold the potential to be part of a university’s strategic plan to help students be successful